Pv Trade War Between the Us and China

Introduction International trade and competitive advantages in the costs of production in China have brought numerous opportunities for China’s exports but also generated challenges due to protectionism from its foreign competitors. Consequently, there have been numerous trade cases against China, including anti-dumping, anti-subsidy, in many economic sectors. The very current trade case involving China is the US accusing Chinese manufacturers of dumping photovoltaic (PV) panels in the US market and the Chinese government unfairly subsidizing its own solar industry.In fact, the US’s trade balances in polysilicon products between both the US and China, and the US and the world significantly deficit while China’s polysilicon cells and modules production has increased dramatically (The Kearney Alliance 2012). This essay claims that, the surge in PV exports does not necessarily mean that the Chinese government has subsidized its PV manufacturers illegally, and Chines e solar manufacturers’ low prices do not necessarily imply they are selling their PV products below the cost of production.Importantly, imposing such significant imports tariff is highly likely to undermine not only the bilateral trade between two countries but also long-term benefits of both countries. First, this essay provides an overview of the US-China PV trade case; then explains why China solar industry has been growing dramatically; and finally it analyses what the consequences might be if the US imposes a countervailing and antidumping tariff on China’s PV. BackgroundOn October 2011, seven US-based PV manufacturers headed by SolarWorld Industries America reported China on a double-anti case to US Department of Commerce (DOC) and US International Trade Organization (ITO). The seven manufacturers, which later formed Coalition for American Solar Manufacturing (CASM), accused China for dumping their PV module products to US market and giving a huge amount of expor t subsidy to this industry which in turn causing severe injuries to US PV manufacturers.Several investigations have been carried out by both DOC and ITC for this issue, as the coalition accused China government providing cash grants, heavily discounted resources, huge loans and credits, tax exemption, incentives and rebate and export grant insurance to the industry. In its final determination held on 10 October 2012, DOC proposed 18. 32 per cent to 249. 96 per cent of anti-dumping and 14. 78 per cent to 15. 97 per cent of countervailing duty.Further actions, including issuing or not issuing anti-dumping and countervailing duty orders, will be made after ITC final determination (US DOC 2012). Photovoltaic industry is a new emerging industry as a response to the threat of energy shortage and environmentally-unfriendly fossil fuel-based energy. Governments issued supportive policies, including giving significant account of subsidy considering higher production cost of this new energy i ndustry compared to that of conventional one.In case of China, the country issued a PV market policy in 2007 that included deployment, investment and research and development supports under the scheme of middle and long term program of renewable energy development set by National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) targeting the energy of 300MWp by 2010 and 1. 8 GWp by 2020 of PV cells installed (Grau et al. 2011). This policy and its comparative advantage on labors result in excessive growth of China PV industries, making China’s world market share skyrocketing from 1 per cent in 2001, 5 per cent in 2005 to 50 per cent in 2010.In 2012, four of the top five PV producers are Chinese overtaking US manufacturers which occupy 27 per cent in 2006, decreased to 5 per cent in 2010 of the total world share (The Kearney Alliance 2012). Why has China’s PV grown so big so fast? There are a number of reasons why the PV industry in China has experienced tremendous growth withi n a short span of time. For instance, China produced about 1 per cent of the world’s solar cells in 2001, and by 2010 it produced nearly almost half (The Kearney Alliance 2012).The same rate of growth was achieved by Japan and Germany during their PV industry expansion; however the key difference is it took them twice as long (The Kearney Alliance 2012). First, such fast paced growth would not be possible without assistance from the government. The Chinese government has been providing many different kinds of assistance to the manufacturers to promote the growth of the PV industry in China. The government’s policy to boost the industry came in the form of loans, tax credits and grants.Additionally, some of the resources required for manufacturing of PV cells were subsidized or discounted to encourage manufacturers to produce more. In 2011, the Chinese government initiated a ‘Five-Year Plan’ to induce further growth of the PV industry well into the year 201 5. Second, it is estimated that help from the government allowed some Chinese manufacturers of PV cells to have somewhere between 18-30 per cent cost advantage over their US counterparts (The Kearney Alliance 2012).The government alone is not responsible for the cost advantage enjoyed by the Chinese manufacturers; scale and vertical integration, and labour costs constitute significant part of the cost advantage. The scale and vertical integration of some of the top tier Chinese manufacturers means that they gain cost advantages due economy of scale; larger factories can produce at a lower cost, and additionally they tend to own or control majority of the companies in the supply chain as well as distributions outlets thus allowing them to maximize profit from supply, production and distributions.Moreover, labour costs are relative cheap compared to the US, especially for unskilled labour, where China has approximately 80 per cent labour cost advantage over the US counterparts (The Ke arney Alliance 2012). Third, besides the assistance and cost advantages, some, if not all, Chinese manufacturers tend to offer trade credit, where solar power customers can purchase the panels without having to pay upfront and are given 60 days payment window to complete the deal.This provides tremendous financial benefit to the customers, as they will have some time for installation of the panels without paying upfront for the panels thus the cost of downtime during the installation is not born by the customers. Finally, growth of China’s PV industry is also due to the extreme projected growth of domestic demand. In 2010, Chinese domestic demand for solar power was only 3 per cent of the world’s demand, and by the end 2014 this is expected to increase to 26 per cent (EPIA 2011). Is Chinese government providing illegal subsidies? Are Chinese manufacturers dumping their products on the U.S. market? The US government accuses the Chinese government of providing the export subsidies, which according to WTO rules is illegal. However, the Chinese government claims that the subsidies, grants, loans and discounts given to the manufacturers are intended to promote the solar power industry and make it cost competitive with conventional power sources. It is worth noting that it’s not just Chinese government that provides subsidies, the US also provides substantial subsidies to its solar power industry albeit to a slightly lesser extent and lower amount in dollar terms.For instance, the US government does not provide land grants or discounts, and the total stimulus loan/loan guarantee is only US$1. 3 billion compared to US$30 billion from the Chinese government (Goodrich et al. 2011). The US Department of Commerce accuses Chinese manufacturers of dumping PV cells on the US market. According to the WTO (WTO, 2012), dumping occurs when a company exports a good to foreign market at a price less than the price it normally charges in its domestic market. T he US considers Chinese economy as non-market economy, thus the Chinese domestic price of PV cells cannot be determined directly from the Chinese market.Therefore, third or surrogate country needs to be chosen in order to determine the fair value of Chinese PV cells. The U. S Department of Commerce has chosen Thailand from a list of 6 countries as the surrogate country. This is unlikely to reflect an appropriate normal price for the Chinese PV since the costs of PV production in China is normally lower than those in Thailand. Possible consequences Both sides are currently still waiting for ITC's final determination. If an affirmative determination is made in late November that imports of PV cells from China, no matter being assembled into modules or not, leads to US omestic industry being or is threatened to be materially injured, Commerce will issue the Anti-Dumping and Countervailing duties order. Back when the preliminary determinations was announced earlier this year, in which t he DOC assessed countervailing duties ranging at a lower rate, most Chinese manufacturers breached a sight of relief and continue their business in U. S. as before. However, DOC's final determination assessed significant higher countervailing duties at 14. 78 per cent -15. 24 per cent, comparing to its 2. 9 per cent-4. 3 per cent in the preliminary (US DOC 2012), undoubtedly it will have a severe impact on China's manufacturers and global solar industry. As the subject of DOC and ITC's investigation is PV cells that are manufactured in China, Chinese firms could shift manufacture or directly purchase PV cells from other countries to avoid tariffs on modules made of Chinese cells. An ideal location is Taiwan, which is already a robust solar cell manufacturing market. Although it is 8 per cent higher than using its domestic produced cells, cells made in Taiwan still have a 10-22 per cent cost advantage than the ones in the US (Wesoff 2012).Not to mention its relative closeness to Chin a. However, using PV cells from other countries other than the US and assembles into PV modules is not a proper long-term strategy. The US could also initiate another investigation into Chinese PV modules assembled, using other countries' cells. Thus, this is only a transitional strategy for Chinese manufacturers before China's domestic demand for PV products picks up to ameliorate industry's excessive supply situation. On the other hand, the imposition of high countervailing and anti-dumping duties might also affect the U.S. solar industry. In 2011, manufacturing only contributed 24000, or 24 per cent of the total employment in the solar industry (The Solar Foundation 2011). Punitive tariffs against Chinese cells will lead to a price jump on PV cells and modules in the US market, it causes the cost of solar projects in the US to increase and the implementation and demand for solar products to decline, which ultimately transits into lower employment in other sectors in the PV indust ry. The Coalition for Affordable Solar Energy commissioned a study showing that a 50 er cent tariff will indeed boost employment in the cell and module manufacturing sector. However, this tariff jump would also result in a huge decrease in employment from slowing-down discretionary spending by solar buyers and an overall demand decrease in other sectors in the whole PV industry. The net impact on total employment would be 15 per cent -40 per cent decline in the US PV industry compared to its 2010 numbers (Berkman et al. 2012). This means the resurrection of the US cells and module manufacturers is at the cost of the rest and the vast majority of the US PV industry.Another potential outcome is that Chinese manufacturers could retaliate against imposed tariffs. The US currently still has a huge positive net export of polysilicon and PV manufacturing equipment to China. In 2011, China attributed to around 30 per cent of the US total net exports of polysilicon and 60 per cent of PV capi tal equipment (GTM 2012). To protest against imposed tariffs and duties, Chinese manufactures could ramp up their own production of polysilicon or turn to other countries to fill the gap, effectively cutting out the US firms in the solar supply chain.Conclusion In sum, Governments in most industrial countries including the US and China have been promoting clean energy technology in recent years. Among the world’s solar producers, China’s booming renewable energy industry, especially solar industry has dominated world solar markets and challenges American leadership. President Obama affirmed the US’s concern about clean energy technology: ‘†¦to make sure that we win the competition. I don’t want the new breakthrough technologies and the new manufacturing taking place in China and India’ (Morris et al. 012, p1). Meanwhile the subsidy to energy, including solar industry, has been successful in China (rapidly increase its market share of wor ld polysilicon production), the US policy subsidy on clean energy has not brought any expected result, even failure (i. e. bankruptcy of Solyndra–the California solar firm) (Robert et al. 2010). Trying to protect the domestic solar industry by preventing other country’s polysilicon exports is highly unlikely to be a wise and fair policy.In particular, countervailing and anti-dumping duties would result in a significant decline in exports of polysilicon and PV manufacturing equipment to China as well as a fall in employment. Indeed, China could have several ways rather than bring the case to the WTO in responding to the trade barriers imposed by the US, but what the US needs to consider its long term benefit. The competitive price of Chinese solar as a cheap source of clean energy which potentially enhances the US economic growth, creates jobs for Americans and tackles with climate change.ReferenceBerkman, M, Cameron, L ; Chang, J 2012, ‘The employment impacts of proposed tariffs on Chinese manufactured photovoltaic cells and modules’, The Brattle Group, Washington, D. C. viewed 16 September 2012, . EPIA see European Photovoltaic Industry Association. European Photovoltaic Industry Association 2011, ‘Global market outlook for Photovoltaics until 2015’, viewed 12 Oct 2012, http://www. epia. org/index. php? eID=tx_nawsecuredl;u=0;file=fileadmin/EPIA_docs/publications/epia/EPIA-Global-Market-Outlook-for-Photovoltaics-until-2015. pdf;t=1351601058;hash=65fb67c830a17dc3384646f83c30e104Goodrich, A, James, T ; Woodhouse, M 2011, Solar PV manufacturing cost analysis: US competitiveness in a global industry, Stanford University, viewed 25 Oct 2012, ;lt; http://www. nrel. gov/docs/fy12osti/53938. pdf;gt;. Grau, T, Huo M ; Neuhoff, K 2011, ‘Survey of photovoltaic industries and policies in Germany and China’, Climate Policy Initiative, Berlin. GTM 2012, ‘U. S. Solar Energy Trade Assessment 2011: Trade Flows and Dom estic Content for Solar Energy-Related Goods and Services in the United States’, Greentech Media, Washington, D.C. Morris, AC, Nivola, PS ; Schultze, CL 2012, ‘Clean energy: revisiting the challenges of industrial policy’, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC. Roberts, MJ, Lassiter, JB ; Nanda, R 2010, ‘US Department of Energy & Recovery Act Funding: bridging the â€Å"Valley of Death† ‘, Harvard Business School. The Solar Foundation 2011, ‘Nation Solar Jobs Census 2011’, viewed 12 October 2012, . The Kearney Alliance, 2012, ‘China solar industry and the US anti-dumping/anti-subsidy case’, China Global Trade.USDOC 2012, ‘Fact sheet: Commerce finds dumping and subsidization of crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells, whether or not assembled into modules from the People's Republic of China’, Department of Commerce, The United States of America, viewed 15 October 2012, . Wesoff, E 2012, ‘Breaking n ews: Commerce Dept. Chinese solar panel dumping verdict is now in’, Greentech Media, viewed 17 October 2012, . WTO see World Trade Organisation World Trade Organisation 2012, ‘Anti-dumping, subsidies, safeguards: contingencies, etc’, The World Trade Organisation, viewed 10 October 2012, http://www. wto. org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/agrm8_e. htm

Deoxyribonucleic Acid Used as Evidence in Solving Criminal Cold Cases Perry Hawn

Deoxyribonucleic Acid Used as Evidence in Solving Criminal Cold Cases Imagine it is a beautiful spring morning and you are walking along when suddenly a man wearing a ski mask and gloves jumps out from behind the bushes and your life is forever changed after this man drags you by your hair, behind the bushes, and proceeds to violently assault you. By some miracle you survive the attack and call the police. However, because this man was wearing a mask and gloves the police have no way of immediately identifying the perpetrator. You are taken to the nearest hospital where they take swabs from your vaginal area in hopes to collect enough Deoxyribonucleic Acid (DNA) to create a sample that can be added to the â€Å"Combined DNA Index System (CODIS)† (May & McIntyre, 2002, p. v). A few years have passed and you hear a knock on your front door. It is a police detective who has come to your home to tell you that an arrest has been made in your case based on a DNA match made from a mouth swab taken from a man who was arrested a few days earlier for robbery. The purpose of this paper is to provide an argument in favor of the June ninth United States Supreme Court decision where five of the nine justices sitting agreed that taking DNA samples collected from those who are suspected of having committed a crime does not violate the fourth amendment of the constitution protecting Americans against unreasonable searches and seizures (Kirkland, 2013). The decision opened the door for police and other authorized law enforcement agencies to collect D. N. A. samples from suspects at the time of arrest so that the suspects D. N. A. can be used to possibly solve cold cases (St. Martin, 2013). Additionally, this paper will argue that using D. N. A. as evidence has multiple benefits like it is infallible because each person’s D. N. A. is unique with the exception of identical births(May & McIntyre, 2002). Further, DNA evidence has been used to solve crimes such as rape, robbery, and homicides. Additionally, D. N. A. offers law enforcement agenc ies new ways of looking at old crimes through the use of advanced technology, international and national databases (Hampikian, 2013). Deoxyribonucleic Acid Deoxyribonucleic Acid more commonly known as DNA is the building block of all living beings. In humans DNA is inherited from your ancestors and determines your hair color, eye color, height, bone structure, blood type and other personal attributes (Van der Sijde, 2013). DNA can be collected from any biological sample like bodily fluids and tissues (What, n. d. ). With the exception of identical births like twins each person’s DNA is as unique as his or her fingerprint (May & McIntyre, 2002). Infallible Evidence D. N. A. rovides foolproof evidence for several reasons including the one made by May and McIntyre cited above referencing the fact that each DNA sample is unique to its owner (except for identical births). Other arguments in favor of D. N. A. being sound evidence include the fact that new ways of collecting, storing, and analyzing D. N. A. have increased the lifespan of the collected samples making those samples viable â€Å"†¦years, even de cades, after it is collected† (May & McIntyre, 2002, p. 3). Furthermore reliable DNA samples can be taken from any type of biological sample including deceased victims (What, n. . ). Uses of D. N. A. Evidence D. N. A. evidence can be used to solve a multitude of crimes, incarcerate the guilty, and free the innocent. In one such case the perpetrator of an aged woman’s rape and attempted murder in North Carolina was arrested because of the criminals D. N. A. having been collected from multiple victims at differing crime scenes. Ten years later a D. N. A. match was found after the criminal had been arrested for an unrelated crime, as a result of D. N. A. evidence. This criminal nicknamed â€Å"the Night Stalker† (May & McIntyre, 2002, p. ) is currently on death row after being â€Å"†¦indicted for three counts of first degree murder, three counts of first degree rape, three counts of first degree burglary, attempted murder, assault with a deadly weapon with intent to kill inflicting serious injury, first degree arson and burning of personal property† (State, 2003, pp. 2-3). New Way to Solve Old Crimes Use of advanced technologies that allow smaller samples of DNA to be collected for analyzing has made use of DNA to solve crimes more palatable. You can read also King v Cogdon What once to take a sample â€Å"†¦the size of a nickel†¦Ã¢â‚¬  (Temple-Raston, 2008, p. 1) now only needs to be â€Å"†¦the size of a pinprick†¦Ã¢â‚¬  (Temple-Raston, 2008, p. 1) offers a new way of looking at long-standing criminal investigations. Use of robotics to handle DNA samples allows for more rapid processing of samples creates a more favorable environment for solving cold cases (Temple-Raston, 2008). Further, the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) is responsible for the creation of CODIS which is â€Å"†¦a roster of prior criminals into a national data database†¦Ã¢â‚¬  (Temple-Raston, 2008, p. ) CODIS links the DNA of prior offenders on a local, state, national and in some cases international level available to law enforcement to help unravel unsolved cases (Combined, n. d. ). Right to Privacy Opponents argue that the taking of DNA from alleged suspects at the time of arrest violates his or her intrinsic right to privacy or that the police will use the ruling to arrest anyone for minor infractions of the law just to get a DNA sample for a possible match (Flock, 2013). In the dissenting opinion Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia wrote â€Å"†¦Make no mistake about it: because of today's decision, your DNA can be taken and entered into a national database if you are ever arrested, rightly or wrongly, and for whatever reason†¦Ã¢â‚¬  (Flock, 2013, p. 1). However, Maryland District Attorney, Douglas F. Gansler, disagrees pointing out that law enforcement cannot arrest someone without probable cause and further states â€Å"if police are genuinely interested in someone's DNA, they could just go pick up their Diet Coke can at the McDonald's† (Flock, 2013, p. 1). Moreover, the majority of justices on the Supreme Court ruled that D. N. A. sample collection via mouth swab does not violate the fourth amendment rights against unreasonable searches and seizures (St. Martin, 2013). Innocent Until Proven Guilty Let’s face it folks who are going through the court system are there because the evidence pointed to him or her as a probable suspect. In actuality, because you can’t argue with D. N. A. , D. N. A. swabbing has done more to convict those who are actually guilty of committing crimes. Additionally, according to numbers gathered by the innocence project D. N. A. wabbing conducted after conviction has freed over 300 inmates who have been wrongly convicted by the court system under due process (DNA, 2013). Storage and Collection Methods Opponents of D. N. A. collection would argue that the storage and collection methods of D. N. A. are outdated and unreliable. However, proper training and new technology allow for D. N. A. to be collected and stored without danger of contamination. Training forensics experts to wear and change his or her gloves after touching each item prevents contamination. Additionally, storage of DNA samples in a cool, dry environment is another technique used to preserve D. N. A. samples. Other methods used to prevent the samples from becoming contaminated include use of separate storage envelopes for each sampling (What, 2013). Also, with the use of cutting edge technology like barcoding DNA samples (Hampikian, 2013) the storage and collection methods used for crime scene DNA are constantly improving and becoming more secure. Conclusion â€Å"Technology is neutral: It convicts and finds innocents. We must make it a regularized part of the system, giving defendant ’s access to DNA testing and evidence whenever it might be relevant† (Spitzer, 2013, n. ). Law enforcement needs a way to protect society from the criminal element who are becoming smarter and advancing their aptitudes for breaking the law through the use of technology. The Supreme Court’s ruling which allows for the swabbing of those arrested will help in solving crimes and exonerating the innocent. New and innovative technologies are making the collection and storage of DNA nearly fail proof. The modernization of the ways in which DNA is used in the criminal justice system is an ever evolving process that seems to be leading us to a more fair and just society.

Child and Marginal Places

In the short essay â€Å"In Praise of Margins†, Ian Frazier puts himself back to the place in time when he did activities just for the sake of doing them. As a kid, Frazier traveled to the woods behind his house without a real sense of purpose. His main goal for the day or afternoon was just to explore, whatever that word may mean to him. Frazier and his friends spent hours on end in the woods simply breaking thin ice sheets, â€Å"throwing rocks at a fresh mudflat to make craters, shooting frogs with slingshots, making forts, picking blackberries, digging in what we were briefly persuaded was an Indian burial mound† (53).They weren’t doing anything important, but that was the point, to do something so insignificant but have it mean so much. Frazier explains that the activities he did as a kid â€Å"was a higher sort of unpurpose† (53), or in other words, marginal. I agree with Frazier about the important of marginality, because children in particular need to try out ideas for themselves and have some breathing room on their own. Marginal activities and places are important to kids, because they allow them to try out ideas or purposeless activities.As an example, Annie Dillard wrote a short essay called â€Å"Hitting Pay Dirt† in which she talks about receiving a microscope as a Christmas present and going down to her basement to play with it endlessly. Dillard received a microscope from her parents because she had wanted one ever since she read â€Å"The Field Book of Ponds and Streams† (82). She was utterly convinced that everyone needed a microscope. At first, Dillard failed and could not use the microscope correctly because the slides she saw were a â€Å"bust. † Eventually in late spring, Dillard succeeded and saw an amoeba.Proud of her accomplishment, she rushed upstairs to tell her parents, but they seemed more interested in their coffee than excited (83). From that point on she understood that you do what you do for pure enjoyment and love for the activity itself and that no one really cares, but yourself. The microscope was her marginal activity and the basement was her marginal place where she could do whatever she wanted. Dillard ends her short essaying stating: â€Å"Anything was possible. The sky was the limit. † (83). â€Å"Hitting Pay Dirt† and â€Å"In Praise of Margins† both have the similar idea of doing something for pure enjoyment.Dillard considers her work in the basement â€Å"play† because she enjoys it, but she didn’t actually realize that she was learning. This is a prime example of a marginal activity because she only used it for her enjoyment without a sense of real purpose. No purpose is needed because marginal activities allow you to be yourself and do something that you like to do, not because there is an end goal. Marginal activities like Dillard’s microscope allow children to try out ideas that they otherwise may neve r have found. A safe haven or a place to escape reality can be important to children.As a child, I lived in the typical two-story home in a typical suburbia neighborhood. I never really could keep much to myself or have ultimate freedom. My parents were typical over-protective parents who were scared that the world may danger and hurt their precious young boy. The only source of escape or get away I ever had was found in the play set in my back yard. It was just a little orange and blue play set that featured a slide and landing. Whenever I couldn’t be found, everyone knew that I was in my little play set in the back yard with my siblings and cousins.My play set was my marginal place because that was where I could come up with crazy imaginations and as soon as I stepped in my thoughts ran free. The play set was a get away from over bearing parents, homework, or even vegetable filled dinners. In that back yard, we could be anyone we wanted to be, think of the craziest adventur es, or even just sit and talk. The play set in the back yard didn’t consist of judgment or scrutiny; rather, it was filled with bliss and innocence. It was such an important part of my childhood and I honestly don’t know if I would be the same person I am today if my play set hadn’t exist.Frazier’s woods are equivalent to my play set in the back yard. It was our get away from reality, the pure pleasure of doing nothing and something at the same time. My play set was my marginal activity and place because it allowed me to explore thoughts and try out the craziest of ideas. It is important as a child to have a get away where you can do anything you wanted because sometimes children are brought up to be perfect. Expectations can get to a child and a safe haven from that is all that is needed.In the words of Ian Frazier â€Å" The margin is where you can try out odd ideas that you might be afraid to admit to with people looking on† (54). Marginal place s and activities are very important to children because it allows for breathing room. Not everything has to be purpose filled. Activities and places can be purposeless and just as satisfying as if it were purpose filled. Frazier took himself back to a time where everything was much simpler, and realized that marginal activities are very important. Marginal places and activities are important for everyone especially children. Child and Marginal Places In the short essay â€Å"In Praise of Margins†, Ian Frazier puts himself back to the place in time when he did activities just for the sake of doing them. As a kid, Frazier traveled to the woods behind his house without a real sense of purpose. His main goal for the day or afternoon was just to explore, whatever that word may mean to him. Frazier and his friends spent hours on end in the woods simply breaking thin ice sheets, â€Å"throwing rocks at a fresh mudflat to make craters, shooting frogs with slingshots, making forts, picking blackberries, digging in what we were briefly persuaded was an Indian burial mound† (53).They weren’t doing anything important, but that was the point, to do something so insignificant but have it mean so much. Frazier explains that the activities he did as a kid â€Å"was a higher sort of unpurpose† (53), or in other words, marginal. I agree with Frazier about the important of marginality, because children in particular need to try out ideas for themselves and have some breathing room on their own. Marginal activities and places are important to kids, because they allow them to try out ideas or purposeless activities.As an example, Annie Dillard wrote a short essay called â€Å"Hitting Pay Dirt† in which she talks about receiving a microscope as a Christmas present and going down to her basement to play with it endlessly. Dillard received a microscope from her parents because she had wanted one ever since she read â€Å"The Field Book of Ponds and Streams† (82). She was utterly convinced that everyone needed a microscope. At first, Dillard failed and could not use the microscope correctly because the slides she saw were a â€Å"bust. † Eventually in late spring, Dillard succeeded and saw an amoeba.Proud of her accomplishment, she rushed upstairs to tell her parents, but they seemed more interested in their coffee than excited (83). From that point on she understood that you do what you do for pure enjoyment and love for the activity itself and that no one really cares, but yourself. The microscope was her marginal activity and the basement was her marginal place where she could do whatever she wanted. Dillard ends her short essaying stating: â€Å"Anything was possible. The sky was the limit. † (83). â€Å"Hitting Pay Dirt† and â€Å"In Praise of Margins† both have the similar idea of doing something for pure enjoyment.Dillard considers her work in the basement â€Å"play† because she enjoys it, but she didn’t actually realize that she was learning. This is a prime example of a marginal activity because she only used it for her enjoyment without a sense of real purpose. No purpose is needed because marginal activities allow you to be yourself and do something that you like to do, not because there is an end goal. Marginal activities like Dillard’s microscope allow children to try out ideas that they otherwise may neve r have found. A safe haven or a place to escape reality can be important to children.As a child, I lived in the typical two-story home in a typical suburbia neighborhood. I never really could keep much to myself or have ultimate freedom. My parents were typical over-protective parents who were scared that the world may danger and hurt their precious young boy. The only source of escape or get away I ever had was found in the play set in my back yard. It was just a little orange and blue play set that featured a slide and landing. Whenever I couldn’t be found, everyone knew that I was in my little play set in the back yard with my siblings and cousins.My play set was my marginal place because that was where I could come up with crazy imaginations and as soon as I stepped in my thoughts ran free. The play set was a get away from over bearing parents, homework, or even vegetable filled dinners. In that back yard, we could be anyone we wanted to be, think of the craziest adventur es, or even just sit and talk. The play set in the back yard didn’t consist of judgment or scrutiny; rather, it was filled with bliss and innocence. It was such an important part of my childhood and I honestly don’t know if I would be the same person I am today if my play set hadn’t exist.Frazier’s woods are equivalent to my play set in the back yard. It was our get away from reality, the pure pleasure of doing nothing and something at the same time. My play set was my marginal activity and place because it allowed me to explore thoughts and try out the craziest of ideas. It is important as a child to have a get away where you can do anything you wanted because sometimes children are brought up to be perfect. Expectations can get to a child and a safe haven from that is all that is needed.In the words of Ian Frazier â€Å" The margin is where you can try out odd ideas that you might be afraid to admit to with people looking on† (54). Marginal place s and activities are very important to children because it allows for breathing room. Not everything has to be purpose filled. Activities and places can be purposeless and just as satisfying as if it were purpose filled. Frazier took himself back to a time where everything was much simpler, and realized that marginal activities are very important. Marginal places and activities are important for everyone especially children.

Benefits and barriers for implementation of activity based costing Dissertation

Benefits and barriers for implementation of activity based costing systems in selected Asian countries - Dissertation Example Analysis of the three countries is provided. Ultimately, the paper concludes that activity-based costing could be extremely beneficial for Asian businesses. However, activity-based costing is virtually guaranteed to fail if it is imposed top-down or haphazardly. Barriers to implementation include different organisational and social cultures, different accounting norms and regulations, regulatory frameworks, fiscal policies, varying relationships to stakeholders, and other factors. If activity-based costing is to succeed, it must grow organically from the needs and behaviors of the organisations it is applied to. Introduction As Asian countries' financial operations become more closely attuned with and leveled against the West, it is likely that the model of activity-based costing (hereafter known as ABC) will spread to Asian enterprises. This paper analyzes three countries: The Hong Kong SAR, Malaysia and mainland China. These countries are immensely different from the West where act ivity-based costing is more common, with different fiscal policies, regulatory backgrounds, macro-economic statistics and behaviors, regional problems, resources, relations to customers and suppliers, and so forth. Ultimately, activity-based costing could be extremely beneficial for Asian businesses. However, activity-based costing is virtually guaranteed to fail if it is imposed top-down or haphazardly. ... 1.1: Definition Activity-based costing is defined by Rockford Consulting (1999) as â€Å"a method of allocating costs to products and services. It is generally used as a tool for planning and control. It was developed as an approach to address problems associated with traditional cost management systems, that tend to have the inability to accurately determine actual production and service costs, or provide useful information for operating decisions†. Without ABC, managers can make errors in calculation and strategy, particularly in companies with many â€Å"products or services†. The idea is to attribute costs to activities more than products themselves. This requires that processes are mapped and understood sufficiently to be priced or measured. A comprehensive idea of the organisation's process structure, overhead, engineering times, etc. have to be honestly calculated. Ultimately, much like scientific management, inefficiencies are exposed and accounting rectified in areas that were never expected to be problematic. Averkamp (2011) offers an example of activity-based costing that illustrates its benefits. Assuming two products engineered by the same company, â€Å"Product 124† being a â€Å"low volume item which requires certain activities such as special engineering, additional testing, and many machine setups because it is ordered in small quantities† and â€Å"Product 366† â€Å"a high volume product—running continuously—and requir[ing] little attention and no special activities†. Under a traditional costing regime, Product 124 has very low machine hours, thus it would have little overhead â€Å"spread† to it; but this is not an accurate representation of its cost. Similarly, Product 366 would apparently seem to cost a lot because of its

Post industrial and information society Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1750 words

Post industrial and information society - Essay Example The transition from manufacturing industry to service sector and putting more emphasis in education in the current society can be described as an information and post industrial society. Information technology is currently employed in the service sector and in communication (Harvey, 1990, p.4). This can describe the present society as post industrial and information technology oriented. A number of countries around the globe are going through a period of information change as a result of post industrial society effects. The features of both post industrial and information societies describe well the current or the present society. But the concept of information society best describes the present society. This is because the present society is majorly characterized with the rapid change in information technology, use of information technology in provision of services and the use of information technology to improve communication from the traditional modes of communication. The post in dustrial society which emphasizes on education to improve the quality of life for humans makes use of information technology to achieve this goal. The post industrial and information societies are share close features. The current world can be described as a joint post industrial and information society. The transition from manufacturing production to service industry is largely aided by the development of information technology. This is part of information society. ... It is characterized by the rise of professionalism and scientists in special areas, and the transition from production of goods to service industry. The information society is a society which involves the establishment, sharing, diffusion, utilization and information manipulation as an important economic, cultural and political activity. Through the economic exploitation of comprehension, wealth is established. Information technology is the prime factor and central to the role of economic production to the society. The present society can be described as an information society in that; it highly embraces the use of information technology in a productive and creative way. The knowledge economy is a counterpart to information society in terms of economy. It involves the creation of wealth by exploitation of understanding economically (Webster, 2006, p. 3). The features which have been experienced in the current society indicate that humans are in a new era of society. The present infor mation society is characterized by information consciousness, advancement of the information sector, empowering information, using information as part of an economic resource, and development of an information industry. Information sector is developed in order to contain the need of information services and facilities by the society. Countries are developing their information sectors in order to keep with the pace of rapidly changing information market internationally. The information sector of several countries is facilitated with telecommunication networks and computers as part of their technological infrastructure (May, 2002, p. 5). To compare the two concepts of post industrial and information societies, there is a transition of the society

Starbucks Financial and Business Analysis- MBA Essay - 1

Starbucks Financial and Business Analysis- MBA - Essay Example With peculiar recognition and deliverance, the corporation is settled with 19000 coffee stores all over the world (Bussing-Burks, 2009). The chain of Starbucks is widespread and it is located in almost 60 countries in the world. With such powerful recognition, Starbucks is compelling with its globalized customer chain order, which makes it a unique coffeehouse chain present in the global market (Bussing-Burks, 2009). There is a big range of items and products which Starbucks offer. The company offers three different categories of products which are coffee goods, handmade beverages and consumer goods. The items which are included in the three respective categories are espresso-hot coffee, cold drinks, snacks, sandwiches, or hot filtered coffee. The company holds an effective supply chain network which is to engage with its worldwide customers’ follow ship. The corporation also holds a place in retailer service, which is centrally operating in Seattle respectively (Bussing-Burks, 2009). With an intensified one liner â€Å"one person, one cup and one neighborhood†, Starbuck’s mission is to drive human spirit in the most aspiring means, and that is by joining work and innovation at one time of service. The company strongly believes in providing quality and is passionate of outsourcing finest coffee beans and is tended with great care (Starbucks, 2012). The company had numerous issues on hands that disrupted its sales and had a negative impact on growth of the company. In 2008, the aim of the company had solely remained to increase rapid growth of the company and its expansion instead of putting more efforts on improving customer services. The increase in intense competition is also the factor that is resulting in shutting down of operations of Starbucks in U.S. New Competitors have risen to offer low priced coffee cheaper than Starbucks itself. The competitors have taken account of

Bioinspired liquid repellent surfaces Literature review

Bioinspired liquid repellent surfaces - Literature review Example Such cases are not only seen on daily basis, like car windshields fogging, bathroom taps calcification and utensils and cooking pans non sticky properties, but also are experienced in industrial applications, infrastructures damage such as metallic machines corrosion and sewer blockage and fouling by fats (Martin et al.2003). In order for such problems to be resolved, there is need of super hydrophobic surfaces creation and it has been studied extensively for the past few decades (Martin et al.2003). For the super-hydrophobicity properties to be achieved there is need of the introduction of roughness to the surface and most of the solid –water surfaces is never oriented parallel to the substrate (Martin et al.2003). Scientists have been inspired by nature in solving sophisticated challenges in the field of biom imetics. Nature is considered to be based on designs that are effective. In this case, the application of previous resources is optimized and it is something that has been considered to inspire engineers worldwide (Bhushan etal.2006). A deeper understanding of nature could result to bio-inspired products which could save money, lives and time. There are various examples which include Shark skin inspired the boat hulls (low drag); low adhesion and super hydrophobic lotus leaf inspired the antifouling medical devices and self cleaning windows (Bhushan etal.2006). There has been resolution to several engineering challenges in nature that include antifouling and fluid drag reduction which are obstacles to several industries. Nature has a clue to these challenges and it includes the butterfly wings and rice leaves unique surfaces characteristics. These combine the lotus leaf effect as well as the shark skin effect to generate what is referred to as rice butterfly wing effect. Several fauna and flora has been majorly focused on by researchers with a lot of emphasis on the structures of the nature, surfaces as well

Fire in the Pioneers by James Fenimore Cooper Essay

Fire in the Pioneers by James Fenimore Cooper - Essay Example He artistically finds and positions fire strategically amidst the conflict thereby portraying his artistic prodigy. Forest fires in the novel epitomize the conflict between humans in the civilized society and the nature. In the several scenes, Cooper uses forest fires specifically to portray he role of humans in the destruction of massive forestlands thereby perpetuating environmental pollution. The forest fires spread fast and consume hundreds of hectares annihilating both animals and vegetation throughout the entire region. Most of the fires are results of human carelessness since malicious individuals who spark the fires simply to torment the rest of the society instigate some of the fires. Other forest fires on the other hand begin because of carelessness such as smokers and famers burning refuse in their gardens. Such shows of carelessness result in the destruction of the ecosystem as hundreds of hectares of forest cover burns away killing all the animals in such ecosystems (Cooper 54). The portrayal of the forest fires is tactical as Cooper uses such to build the extent and effects of environmental degradation. As the fires spread, the forests sustain the flow as massive bush land go up in flame owing to human laxity. The inability of the people to orchestrate timely response to the forest fires result in the loss of both the ecosystem and human life at times. Cooper uses the forest fires to sustain his sardonic criticism of the society and the relationship between humans in the civilized society and the natural wilderness thereby depicting the priorities of the humans. Apparently, the humans fail to recognize the position and role of the environment despite their technological advancement a feature that contributes to the people’s inability to curb forest fires before they destroy large tracts of

Measurement and Instrumentation(Hall Effect) Assignment

Measurement and Instrumentation(Hall Effect) - Assignment Example The separation of charge establishes an electric field that opposes further migration of charge and a steady electrical potential will be eventually established as long as the charge is flowing. The sensor experiment has a hall sensor rig that has been attached on the flat surface of the board. The board is calibrated with measurements showing how far the slider is from the sensor rig. The slider has a magnet attached to it. From the experiment, the DC voltage increases as the slider moves further away from the sensor rig and reduces when the slider is closest to the sensor rig. The slider has a magnet attached to it, while the sensor rig has current moving within it in one direction. When the slider is near the sensor rig, a strong magnetic field that is not parallel to the direction of the moving charges in the rig is formed. The magnetic field is perpendicular to the direction of the moving charges in the rig. This strong magnetic field causes the charges to accumulate on one side of the sensor rig. This leaves equal and opposite charges exposed on the opposite side which has few mobile charges. This results in asymmetric distribution of charge density across the hall element that is perpendicular to the line of sight path and the magnetic field. This separation of charges establishes an electric field that opposes further migration of charge (Ramsden, 2006). The strength of the magnetic field determines the concentration of charges on one side of the rig. When the slider which has a magnet is near the sensor rig, there are more magnetic fields felt on the sensor rig than when the slider which has a magnet is further away. Therefore, there is only a small charge that passes through when the magnet is closest to the rig hence the small voltage reading by the digital multimetre and a lot of charge is able to pass through when slider with magnet is further away from the sensor rig hence the high voltage reading by the

Finance and Accounting Briefing in Healthcare Essay

Finance and Accounting Briefing in Healthcare - Essay Example It is against this background that the institution wishes to steer clear of the raging political and social concerns amongst governors and senators (Holly, 2012). The ongoing jostling by governors to garner comparative advantages for given states nevertheless should be embraced because many Americans hold diverse political and economic inclinations in relation to federal spending. However, the strategy of the institutions of CMS and the statutory obligations must be observed and vindicated of all forms of bias and manipulation. It is incidental to the office of the director of the program to offer leadership and stewardship for the greatest good (Lorenz, 2013). The main obligation of the CMS is to secure effective cost management in the healthcare systems while also optimizing the outcomes per dollar budgetary allocation. In this regard, Affordable Care Act (ACA) is often deemed the harbinger of a legislative masterpiece. Medicaid matching grant is therefore meant to produce a greater impact on the healthcare systems than previously thought in terms of actual outcomes (Newhouse et al, 2013). Whereas the Federal Medical Assistance Percentages (FMAP) remains a useful policy instrument, the Directorate of the CMS must be cognizant of the fact that given states may deploy unscrupulous ways of influencing greater funding for their regions. In the foregoing debate in the Congress, for instance, many states perceived to be more worthy of greater funding have not really yielded optimal outcomes (United States Government Accountability Office GOA, 2011). Each administration has also produced varying results for the FMAP Floor change and thus politi cal influences are an unavoidable consideration. It should be noted that the proposed Medicaid intergovernmental grant structure will potentially have greater outcomes than the earlier versions of policy typologies.

Creative Treatment of Actuality Term Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2750 words

Creative Treatment of Actuality - Term Paper Example The traditional cinema gained hold around the world at the turn of the 20th Century. Many communities around the world built different niches within which motion picture was developed and enhanced in order to promote this art form  (Benson, 2013). Primarily, the main role of the motion picture was to entertain viewers  (Benson, 2013). However, with time, the use of television and other forms of the motion picture to educate people was enhanced and promoted throughout communities around the world. One of the earliest views of documentaries was the concept of creative treatment of actuality. This was presented by John Grierson who viewed it as a system of using some degree of creativity to present factual and non-fictional storylines in a way and manner that maintained the originality of the cinema and also educated viewers of the matter that needed to be discussed. The concept of the creative treatment of actuality is about observing life in an art form that brings out the natural aspects of society and this is done through factual films presented in a dramatic form (De Jong, 2013). The creative treatment of actuality was first propounded by John Grierson who viewed it as a form of journalism, presented through the media process. Later on, this concept played a role in defining the actual role and processes of documentaries. â€Å"Documentary film is a broad category of visual expression that is based on the attempt in one fashion or the other to ‘document’ real ity† (Killborn & Izod, 2013, p. 29). In John Grierson's pioneering work, he sought to document the life of a Polynesian girl and her family in 1926. This was done through the use of words, music, images and sound effects that were meant to create an aesthetic and factual appeal (Killborn & Izod, 2013). This is meant to present a lively view of a given situation in order to present a message in a strong way and manner and bring about a high degree of realism to the documentary. However, this includes some creative components that will work together to attain specific objectives and end.  

Critical Thinking in Homeland Security Essay Example for Free

Critical Thinking in Homeland Security Essay Critical Thinking in Homeland Security Introduction   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Homeland Security is an essential part of the security organs that are very crucial in ensuring the protection of the country’s sovereignty. Just as other nations in the world, United States faces significant threats from the external and internal factors. The US established Homeland Security Department in 2003, in an effort to address the external threats and aggression like the September 11 terrorist attacks (Pruitt, 2003, â€Å"The 9/11 Commission,† 2005). Therefore, the main objective of the department is to prevent terrorist attacks in the US. Additionally, the department has to minimize the exposure of the nation to terrorism and minimizing the injuries that results from the attacks, if attacks occur.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   To achieve its mandate the department applies several skills. These skills are aimed at determining the likelihood of a threat and establishing the credibility of the threat as per the information provided. Among the skills used is the critical thinking. By definition, critical thinking refers to the ability by the department personnel to make clear, rational judgments (Paul Elder, 2009). This means that the decisions regarding security should be arrived through a well thought out processes (Pruitt, 2003). Critical thinking under homeland security focuses on crucial elements of thought and asking the relevant questions. This means that the department has to evaluate every piece of evidence at their disposal in order to develop appropriate security solutions to the country. The discussion put forward below will aim at establishing what critical thinking method model is appropriate for the decision-making within the structures of homeland s ecurity (â€Å"The 9/11 Commission,† 2005). The reason behind this inquiry is highly dependent on the fact that there are different critical thinking models. These models are very useful in the since they help to find the best and effective solution in homeland parameter. However, different models offer different results. Discussion   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   The September 11 attack brought about unprecedented need for good, efficient and effective security apparatus. With the introduction of the Homeland Security Department, the country was placed at a position to deal with the terrorism threats. The terrorism activities are currently very dynamic and in return there is a need for the solutions that might meet these challenges (Pruitt, 2003). As a consequence, the homeland security personnel is require to meet the ever rising need for increased demand of the security services as well as meeting the high placed accountability standards. To achieve these requirements they have to learn to become highly skilled in their level of thinking, as well as reasoning abilities.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   The fundamental reason for the need to improve skills is that the employees have to analyze all the massive information, understand it, identify the problems and offer solution (Paul Elder, 2009). However, the processing of this massive information comes against the race of time. Homeland security department has to make timely decision that would help to preempt any threats that may arise or control the already existing threats (Pruitt, 2003). Additionally, the strategies employed by the terrorist are changing day in day out, and as well these changes must be encompassed in the decision which the department is undertaking. For instance, before the September 11 attack, the defense apparatus restricted themselves to biological and chemical threats. Moreover, the use of airplane as a tool to carry out terrorism strikes was covered by defense agencies like the Pentagon (â€Å"The 9/11 Commission,† 2005). On the other hand, the threat o f airplane strike was not addressed as the security agencies believed this would result to giving the terrorist an additional tool to their disposal.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   The example about the use of airplane as a tool of terrorism indicates an ineffective manner of using the available information to mitigate the terrorist attacks. In this regard, critical thinking is very essential in manner in which the homeland security handles the information they acquire to handle security issues or threats (Paul Elder, 2009). This is mainly, because critical thinking offers the prediction and diagnosis analysis for security issues. Prediction depends chiefly on the ability of the security organs to be able to think ahead. Thinking ahead, as part of critical thinking, dictates that the security organs are able to establish the likely causes of terrorism and probable outcomes (Kiltz, 2009). Diagnosis means the analysis of previous threats which in turn helps to extrapolate the likely future events. In this regard, security organs are able to identify their past failures and in turn making amendments. Additionally, the organs are able to replicate past successes to the future. Best Critical Thinking Model   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   While understanding the importance of the critical thinking skills, there are several critical thinking models at the disposal of security organs to address any homeland security issues. It is very crucial to put a lot of emphasis on the fact that critical thinking is basic requirement for security decisions facing the country (Paul Elder, 2009). Therefore, to identify the best critical thinking model it would be prudent to learn the two factors that will play a very major role in determining the best model. Critical thinking in the context of homeland security is fundamentally dependent on the most important factor for good decision-making and the nature of the homeland security context (Browne Keeley, 2007). 1. Decision making   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Critical thinking is fundamentally aimed at arriving at appropriate decision. Every decision made or arrived at should be able to offer solution in the context of homeland security. In this light, the decision of the security apparatus should be able to effectively prevent the threats that arise as well as minimize the damages is events occur (Kiltz, 2009). Thus, critical thinking plays a pivotal role in decision-making process. On the same note, the best decision-making model is exceedingly reliant on the right questions.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   The right question are said to be the main factor that enable effective decisions to be made in all the fields of the society, security being inclusive (Kiltz, 2009). Questions are a good guiding factor while looking for the appropriate results. One, right questions create a structure that our thinking relies upon, that is to say, right questions are essential in finding the suitable materials or information that are essential to the decision or solutions. Secondly, right questions play a vital role of determining the course of our thinking. In this regard, the right questions are crucial element of individual thinking (Kiltz, 2009). This indicates that the right questions part of the homeland security parameters, in that they would help the decision makers in this context will arrive the best solutions possible to the various security challenges. 2. The nature of homeland security   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   The processes and the activities surrounding decision making in the parameters or the context of the homeland security are substantially complex. The complexity comes in two levels: one, there amount of data or information being processed is extremely large and second, there are a lot of dynamics and variables in homeland security decisions (Paul Elder, 2009). Therefore, the decision-making process has a higher requirement of exhaustive scrutiny of all the probable accompanying implications of any decision made. In addition, the scrutiny extends other available options prior or before the enforcing any decision passed. A good example relates to diversion tactics that are highly employed by terrorist (Davis, 2012). This is where a threat is identified in a particular location while in reality the actual threat is in another place. Without appropriate critical thinking capabilities, the security apparatus are expected to put enough emphasis on areas which are reported to have the threat while leaving the other places vulnerable.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Understanding the nature of homeland security is pegged on homeland security operations and the past failure. Past failures help to understand what part of the process failed and how efficiently and effectively did homeland rise from their falls. For instance from the example above, if the severity of a homeland security event was increased by the misjudgment stated above, in future homeland security would put all efforts at protecting all places equally while still putting emphasis on any information gathered (Paul Elder, 2009). That fact encompasses a crucial part of the critical thinking in such a security decision-making process.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   In effect, the most effective critical thinking model should be all-inclusive. Inclusivity means that all the available alternatives should be taken into account while simultaneously evaluating the possible outcomes associated with each likely action. The module applied is similar to a game theory model (Davis, 2012). In such a model, the homeland security is supposed to establish every strategy available to them as well as those available to the opponents, the terrorists. This would help to preempt most, if not all, of the threats posed by various terrorists groups. Therefore, every strategy has probable action, which in turn will deliver results. It would be the aim of homeland to select the most applicable strategy and take an action that would offer the best-expected outcome (Paul Elder, 2009).   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   For example, through information and intelligence gathering, the security organs in the United States had all the necessary, adequate and relevant information to indicate that an attack was eminent. This information was prior to the September 11 attack, which detailed the Al Qaeda plans to attack the US. This shows that the security organs had the available strategies of the opponents. However, the organs failed to select the best strategy and their actions failed to meet the required results (â€Å"The 9/11 Commission,† 2005).   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   The time constraints also play a critical part in undertaking any security decision. The reason behind this is that despite the large volumes of information that need to processed, the uncertainty of when a homeland security event is likely to occur needs timely decision-making. Using the September 11 example, it can be observed that the security organs failed to meet the timely decision requirement (Kiltz, 2009). Although all the information processed indicated the likelihood of a terrorism incident in United States, no timely action was taken to preempt the threats due to the argument that the decision process was at its preliminary stage.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Additionally, homeland security should be in a position to predict the opponents’ likely cause of action and also putting a lot of effort towards preventing the threats preempting the homeland actions. This is attached to diversion tactics, where the threats mature to events in places other than those indicated in the threats information. This was the strategy that was employed by the Al Qaeda to beat homeland security at their game in September 11 (â€Å"The 9/11 Commission,† 2005). Prior to the attack, the information gathered indicated that the threats were highly in United States departments and agencies that were beyond borders. The fact that overseas parts of homeland security were threatened, the homeland skewed its efforts towards the external offices and agencies. Consequently, the Al Qaeda anticipated the moves of homeland security and they counteracted by attacking the internal departments (â€Å"The 9/11 Commissi on,† 2005). Critical thinking should help to homeland security to fill all the available loopholes that may expose their operations and the country was vast. 3. Right Questions Model   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   As stated earlier there are several models at the disposal of the homeland security, but among them asking the right questions takes the reign. There are several factors that have heavily tilted the odds towards the right questions model of critical thinking (Browne Keeley, 2007). First, the model plays a pivotal role in addressing the various loopholes found under the nature of homeland security. For instance the failures that were capitalized by the Al Qaeda in the September 11 attack (â€Å"The 9/11 Commission,† 2005). The right questions model aims at querying all the information available. The inquisitive nature of the model allows the various security issues to be determined as well as determining the necessary conclusions. The conclusions are highly dependent on the reasoning, assumptions, and clarity of words.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   There are numerous benefits that accompany this essential model of right questions. To begin with the model is highly useful in offering a well detailed analysis of the decision made as well as the cause of actions undertaken. When comparing this model with the other models such as the elements of thought thinking model, right questions model outranks them all in enabling homeland to meet its objectives or targets (Browne Keeley, 2007). Furthermore, it is established that the model has other models easily inbuilt. Mainly, homeland security establishes the positive elements of the other models and encompasses them in the right questions model. As a consequence, the models offer comprehensive and well-contained solutions out of all the available alternatives.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   In addition, the said model is highly interactive as it offers an all rounded analysis of the various situations. The analysis is crucial in timely and effective decision-making as well as in actualization of the actions set. Additionally, the model allows homeland to identify the instances of fallacies in reasoning (â€Å"The 9/11 Commission,† 2005). Well thought out decision should not be guided by a belief, myth of misconceptions. This allows homeland security process of verification and validation of evidence to be thorough and unbiased. If some essential information is missed, the model would results to different alternatives. Right questions model bases its success on availability of possible alternatives. Therefore, the model puts a lot emphasis on the available information which helps decision makers to arrive at the best possible alternative. On the other hand, the other models have some constraints in their operations (Bro wne Keeley, 2007). For instance, the Element of Thought thinking model success is highly dependent on the emphasis given to some four aspects of decision-making. Using the Model   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Several failures have been seen under the dome of homeland security. These failures are highly attributed as the indirect contributors of past events like the September 11 attacks. The right questions model can easily address these past challenges (Browne Keeley, 2007). Moreover, the model is the key to providing support to the homeland security decision-making process as well as creating and enhancing the credibility of the actions undertaken by homeland security.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   The right questions model is dependent on an extensive spectral analysis. This analysis is the foundation of critical thinking. As a consequence, the right questions model helps to evaluate all the possible alternatives and their accompanying actions; which aim at getting the best possible solution. The model has been extensively used under the homeland security context to eradicate and lessen threats like the September 11 attacks. For example, prior to September 11 attacks the United States intelligence had gathered that there were several threats directed towards the United States institutions outside the country (â€Å"The 9/11 Commission,† 2005). Lack of a wider spectral analysis, the homeland security failed in its job (Browne Keeley, 2007). In dependence to the information, the homeland security strengthened the security agencies beyond borders and failed to do so with the domestic agencies. As a consequence, the Al Qaeda use d this loophole to carry out the attacks in the US soil (The 9/11 Commission, 2005). Under right questions model, an in-depth analysis would have taken place prompting homeland security to reinforce all the security agencies across the board. Such analysis would have enabled homeland security to alleviate the September 11 attacks. The alleviation would have been achieved through the fact that the homeland security would have easily identify and eliminated all the security exposures that faced the United states at large without overemphasis on the overseas institutions (Browne Keeley, 2007). The fallacies of logic resulted to this misguided conclusions. While combating the Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, there was a belief that the US turf was safe from the Al Qaeda actions. This resulted to homeland security ignoring the domestic security need for dealing with terrorism.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Additionally, there were not efforts to fill the information gaps that were there before the attacks. There poor statistics since there limited activities that were undertaken by security agencies in the United States (â€Å"The 9/11 Commission,† 2005). The model selected put emphasis on identifying the missing information which in turns increases the chances of obtaining the best strategy and the appropriate cause of action to be employed. For instance, the evidence provided that an attack was imminent, but there were no prompt actions that were undertaken to mitigate these threats. Also, despite the availability of evidence that indicated that there were terrorist threats facing the US, no security actions were undertaken in time (Browne Keeley, 2007). The claims behind the lack of actions were that the decision process was still at preliminary stages, indicating the rigidity of the security operations. The selected model offers flexible and dynamic solutions to challenges. Through the right questions model, appropriate decisions would have been arrive at early enough to mitigate the threats. Conclusion   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Critical thinking is crucial for the undertakings of the homeland security department. This is because there are significant complexities of the decisions and accompanying actions. The critical thinking models are several but one outranks the others; the right questions model is very essential in establishing the right decisions and cause of actions. The model employs a wider spectral analysis strategy with an aim of achieving efficient, effective and timely solutions. Looking at the applicability of the model against the events of September 11 attacks the model would achieve better-desired results (â€Å"The 9/11 Commission,† 2005). References Browne, M., Keeley, S. (2007). Asking the right questions. Upper Saddle River, N.J.: Pearson Prentice Hall. Davis, V. (2012). Use Critical Thinking to Overcome Personal Biases. IN Homeland Security. Retrieved 22 January 2015, from http://inhomelandsecurity.com/use-critical-thinking-to-overcome-personal-biases/ Kiltz, L. (2009). Developing Critical Thinking Skills in Homeland Security and Emergency Management Courses. Journal Of Homeland Security And Emergency Management, 6(1), 1-20. Retrieved from http://www.innovative-analytics.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/DevelopingCriticalThinking.pdf Paul, R., Elder, L. (2009). The miniature guide to critical thinking. Dillon Beach, Calif.: Foundation for Critical Thinking. Pruitt, K. (2003). Modeling Homeland Security: A Value Focused Thinking Approach (1st ed., pp. 1-236). Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio: Department of the Air Force, Air University. Retrieved from http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/afit/pruitt_vft_hls.pdf The 9/11 Commission,. (2005). The 9/11 Commission Report: Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States (1st ed., pp. 1-400). Washington DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. Retrieved from http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/GPO-911REPORT/pdf/GPO-911REPORT.pdf Source document

Introduction To Cricket In The 21st Century History Essay

Introduction To Cricket In The 21st Century History Essay When considering the extensive amount of research that has been directed toward the sporting world from a mathematical, statistical and operational research perspective, the Duckworth/Lewis method (Duckworth and Lewis, 1998, 2004) perhaps stands alone as the most significant contribution to sport. The common practice in dealing with interrupted one-day cricket matches until 1992 was to compare the run rates (the total number of runs scored divided by the number of completed overs) of the competing teams; the team with the higher run rate was declared the winner. However, this rule tended to benefit the team batting second (Team 2) at the expense of the team batting first (Team 1), leading to the common practice of inviting the other team to bat first if rain was expected. The difficulty with run rates is that targets are determined by taking the remaining overs into account, while ignoring the number of lost wickets. As is well known, batsmen tend to bat less aggressively and score fewer runs when more wickets have been taken. The first team does not have the same strategic options as the second team and, in that sense, the rule does not provide both teams with equal opportunities. Realising that this rule is biased towards the side batting second, the Australian Cricket Board introduced its most productive overs rule during the 1992/93 season. This rule calculates the target for Team 2 by taking the n highest scoring overs of Team 1 where n is the number of played overs (for example, 40 if 10 overs are lost due to rain). Ironically, this rule was now considered as tending to favour the side batting first and transparently unfair to the team batting second. To illustrate, Suppose that Team 2 requires 20 off 19 balls to win, when a short shower takes three overs away. The reset target would now be 20 off 1 ball since the three least productive overs are deduced from the original target (which we may believe were three maiden overs in this case). However, this seems to be unfair and even ironic: the second teams excellent bowling (three maiden overs) in the first innings is now turning against them; it would have been better for Team 2 in this case if Team 1 had reached the same total score without any maidens. The Duckworth/Lewis method was utilised and gained prominence during the 1999 World Cup, and since that time, it has been adopted by every major cricketing board and competition. In one-day cricket, the Duckworth/Lewis method is based on the recognition that at the beginning of a match, each side has resources available (typically 50 overs and 10 wickets). When the match is shortened, the resources of one or both teams are reduced and the two teams usually have different resources for their innings. In this case, in an attempt to be fair, a revised target for the team batting second is set. The determination of the target using resources is known as the Duckworth/Lewis method. What makes the adoption of the Duckworth/Lewis method remarkable is that the method is widely perceived by the public as a black box procedure. Generally, people do not understand how the targets are set but they do agree that the targets are sensible or at least preferable to the approach based on run rates. Although the Duckworth/Lewis (D/L) method was designed for one-day cricket, it has also been applied to Twenty20 cricket. Twenty20 is a relatively new version of limited overs cricket with only 20 overs per side. In contrast to the one-day game and first-class cricket (which can take up to five days to complete), Twenty20 matches have completion times that are comparable to other popular team sports. With the introduction of the biennial World Twenty20 tournament in 2007 and the Indian Premier League in 2008, Twenty20 cricket has gained widespread popularity. Although Twenty20 (t20) cricket is similar to one-day cricket, there exist subtle variations in the rules (e.g. fielding restrictions, limits on bowling, etc) between the two versions of cricket. The variations in the rules, and most importantly, the reduction of overs from 50 to 20 suggest that scoring patterns in t20 may differ from the one-day game. In particular, t20 is seen as a more explosive game where the ability to score 4s and 6s is more highly valued than in one-day cricket. Since the D/L method (and its associated resource table) is based on the scoring patterns in one-day cricket, it is therefore reasonable to ask whether the D-L method is appropriate for t20. With the rise of Twenty20, an investigation of the D/L method applied to t20 is timely. Up until this point in time, such an investigation might not have been possible due to the dearth of t20 match results. Now analysts have at their disposal nearly 200 international matches, and through the use of efficient estimation procedures, the question may be at least partially addressed. Also, since t20 matches have a shorter duration, to date, few matches have been interrupted and resumed according to D/L. Consequently, if there is a problem with D/L applied to t20, it may not have yet manifested itself. This was true before the third editon of the World t20 in May 2010 when a controversial outcome occurred in a game between England and the West Indies. The criticism directed at the usage and appropriateness of the method by players, commentators and fans provide sufficient motivation to adjust the table in this project. In Section 2, the construction of the Duckworth/Lewis resource table is reviewed as well as its effective inception relative to past rain rules. Some comments are provided on aspects of the table and the limitations of the method. In Section 3, an alternative Twenty20 resource table is obtained using a non-parametric approach based on Gibbs sampling. The data used in the construction of the new table consist of all international Twenty20 matches to date involving Test-playing nations as recognised by the International Cricket Council (ICC). The project concludes with a short discussion in Section 4. A heat map is provided to facilitate comparisons between the two tables. 2. For their eyes only: Evaluation of the current method and its appropriateness A condensed version of the Duckworth/Lewis resource table (Standard Edition) is shown in Table 1 (taken from the ICC Playing Handbook 2008-09). In an uninterrupted innings of one-day cricket, a team starts batting with maximum resources available, equivalent to 50 overs and zero wickets taken. Reflect now on a one-day match where Team 1 scores 276 runs at the end of its 50 overs, as a simple example of the use of the Duckworth/Lewis resource table. Before Team 2 has a chance to start their chase of Team 1s total, it rains and they only receive 30 overs for their innings. A look at the resource table shows that Team 2 has only 75.1% of their resources in hand and, consequently, their target for winning the match is set at 276(0.751)=208 runs. Contrast the Duckworth/Lewis target with the unreasonably low target of 276(30/50)=166 runs based on run rates. Table 1. Abbreviated version of the Duckworth-Lewis resource table (Standard Edition) Overs available Wickets lost 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 50 100.0 93.4 85.1 74.9 62.7 49.0 34.9 22.0 11.9 40 89.3 84.2 77.8 69.6 59.5 47.6 34.6 22.0 11.9 30 75.1 71.8 67.3 61.6 54.1 44.7 33.6 21.8 11.9 25 66.5 63.9 60.5 56.0 50.0 42.2 32.6 21.6 11.9 20 56.6 54.8 52.4 49.1 44.6 38.6 30.8 21.2 11.9 10 32.1 31.6 30.8 29.8 28.3 26.1 22.8 17.9 11.4 5 17.2 17.0 16.8 16.5 16.1 15.4 14.3 12.5 9.4 1 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.2 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 The table entries indicate the percentage of resources remaining in a match with the specified number of wickets lost and overs available. The D/L method has several advantages, which make it undoubtedly preferable to all previously used retargeting rules: completeness (it is able to handle all kinds of interruptions, even multiple interruptions and other unusual situations); the underlying mathematical model is internally consistent; tables are easily accessible/the computer programme is user-friendly; and the method compared to previous rules preserves the chance of winning by providing a relatively realistic reset target. Duckworth and Lewis (1998) only make available incomplete information relating to the creation of the resource table. Nevertheless, they do reveal that the table entries are based on the estimation of the 20 parameters Z0(w) and b(w), w=0, †¦, 9 corresponding to the function where Z(u,w) is the average total score obtained in u overs in an unlimited overs match where w wickets have been taken. While the utility of the Duckworth/Lewis table in one-day cricket cannot be questioned, a number of questions arise based on (1) and the estimates found in Table 1: Is (1) the best curve when considering that there are several parametric curves that could be fit? Is there any benefit in using a non-parametric fit to derive the table entries? The function (1) refers to unlimited overs cricket but is formed from a basis of one-day rules. Since one-day cricket is limited overs cricket, is there an advantage in taking the structure of the one-day game into account? How are the parameters estimated? If the 10 curves corresponding to w=0, †¦, 9 are fit separately, there are little data available beyond u=30 for fitting the curve with w=9. Also, the asymptotes for the curves with w=0,1,2 (see Figure 1 of Duckworth and Lewis (1998)) fall beyond the range of the data. In Table 1, the last two columns have many identical entries going down the columns. Although very few matches occur under these conditions, is it really sensible for resources to remain constant as the available overs decrease? This is a consequence of the asymptote imposed by (1). Although the D/L method maintains the margin of victory, it does not preserve the probability of victory. The resource table employed by the D/L method, and throughout its several updates, is based on detailed information from a large number of first innings scoring patterns. Therefore, the method assumes that the expected proportion of overall scoring for a particular over when a given number of wickets have been lost is the same in both innings. The validity of this assumption (that scoring patterns are the same in both innings) can be questioned. It has been found that there are a greater relative proportion of runs scored in the early and late overs of second innings, than in the first innings. The rule assumes that run-scoring accelerates right from the beginning of the innings so that runs come at a faster rate for every over completed; an exponential relationship between runs and overs is assumed. Although this captures the fact that run-scoring accelerates at the end of an innings, the moment of stabilisation somewhere after the relaxing of fielding restrictions is overlooked. 50 overs has been the standard format for a One-day International (ODI) for so long (over 20 years) that there is a period between the end of the fifteenth over and the start of the 41st where the batting side keep the scorecard ticking over through nudged and nurdled singles whilst the fielding side are perfectly happy to concede. Furthermore, no consideration is given to powerplay overs in which fielding restrictions are in place. Losing two overs during a period of fielding restrictions reduces a teams resources more than when a team loses the same couple of overs somewhere between, say, overs 25 and 30. The D/L method does not reflect the fact that the first period has a much higher run-scoring capacity than the second. The asymmetry between the equations for resetting targets impairs the quality of impartiality and may even lead to strategic options which are not equally open to both teams. When the target is large and Team 2 forsees a substantial reduction of its innings, Team 2 could take the strategic option to keep as many wickets as possible in hand, even if the scoring rate is less than required: a score of 99/1 (or 110/2, 123/3†¦) after 25 overs in the second innings against a target of 286 for 50 overs would win if no further play is possible. This distorted result is not merely due to the scaling of limited early data but also stems from an idealised assumption of how batting sides deploy their resources during an innings. The D/L method, like other (target) prediction algorithms, tries to fit historical data into a function curve, and uses this to predict future match states. Although this approach is generic and scales well, the specificity of the match is lost. For example, say in two instances a match is interrupted in the first innings with the score at 100/3 after 25 overs. The prediction (extrapolation) for both the matches will be the same. However, if one of the teams were 90/0 after 15 overs and the other team were 40/3 at the same stage, it is highly probable that the second team would have gone on to score more than the first. 3. Turn the tables: A new model for Twenty20 matches For ease of discussion, it is convenient to convert the Duckworth/Lewis resource table to the context of Twenty20; the resource table is shortened to 20 overs and the entries scaled so that an innings beginning with 20 overs and zero wickets corresponds to 100% resources. Table 2 gives the full Duckworth/Lewis resource table (Standard Edition) for Twenty20 where the entries are obtained by dividing the corresponding entry in Table 1 by 0.566 (the resources remaining in a 1-day match where 20 overs are available and zero wickets taken). Table 2. The Duckworth/Lewis resource table (Standard Edition) scaled for Twenty20 Overs available Wickets lost 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 20 100.0 96.8 92.6 86.7 78.8 68.2 54.4 37.5 21.3 19 96.1 93.3 89.2 83.9 76.7 66.6 53.5 37.3 21.0 18 92.2 89.6 85.9 81.1 74.2 65.0 52.7 36.9 21.0 17 88.2 85.7 82.5 77.9 71.7 63.3 51.6 36.6 21.0 16 84.1 81.8 79.0 74.7 69.1 61.3 50.4 36.2 20.8 15 79.9 77.9 75.3 71.6 66.4 59.2 49.1 35.7 20.8 14 75.4 73.7 71.4 68.0 63.4 56.9 47.7 35.2 20.8 13 71.0 69.4 67.3 64.5 60.4 54.4 46.1 34.5 20.7 12 66.4 65.0 63.3 60.6 57.1 51.9 44.3 33.6 20.5 11 61.7 60.4 59.0 56.7 53.7 49.1 42.4 32.7 20.3 10 56.7 55.8 54.4 52.7 50.0 46.1 40.3 31.6 20.1 9 51.8 51.1 49.8 48.4 46.1 42.8 37.8 30.2 19.8 8 46.6 45.9 45.1 43.8 42.0 39.4 35.2 28.6 19.3 7 41.3 40.8 40.1 39.2 37.8 35.5 32.2 26.9 18.6 6 35.9 35.5 35.0 34.3 33.2 31.4 29.0 24.6 17.8 5 30.4 30.0 29.7 29.2 28.4 27.2 25.3 22.1 16.6 4 24.6 24.4 24.2 23.9 23.3 22.4 21.2 18.9 14.8 3 18.7 18.6 18.4 18.2 18.0 17.5 16.8 15.4 12.7 2 12.7 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.4 12.0 11.7 11.0 9.7 1 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.2 6.0 5.7 The table entries indicate the percentage of resources remaining in a match with the specified number of wickets lost and overs available. To build a resource table for Twenty20 (t20), it is imperative to consider the scoring patterns specific to the shortest version of the game. Hence, consider the 141 international t20 matches involving ICC full member teams that have taken place from the first in 17 February 2005 through to 14 January 2011 (details of these matches can be accessed from ESPN Cricinfo). The shortened matches where the Duckworth/Lewis method was present have been excluded along with the t20 matches involving non-test playing nations (ICC Associates); the latter disqualification is in place to ensure matches are of a consistently high standard. Since scoring patterns in the second innings show a level of dependency to the number of runs scored by Team 1, consider first innings data only in the examination of t20 scoring patterns. Note that in their development of a simulator for one-day cricket match results, Swartz et al (2009) consider batting behaviour in the second innings. Match summary results are obtainable from ESPN Cricinfos statistics website but this study calls for ball-by-ball data. For this, Stephen Lynch (statistician) took pains to compose the associated commentary log for each match and store the data in a tabular form for easy access. For each match, define z(u,w(u)) as the runs scored from the point in the first innings where u overs remain and w(u) wickets have been taken until the conclusion of Team 1s innings. Calculate z(u,w(u)) for all values of u that occur in the first innings for each match beginning with u=20 and w(u)=w(20)=0. Next calculate the matrix T=(tuw) where tuw is the estimated percentage of resources remaining when u overs are available and w wickets have been taken. Calculate (100%) tuw by averaging z(u,w(u)) over all matches where w(u)=w and dividing by the average of z(20, 0) over all matches; the denominator is the average score by a side batting first in a t20 match. In the case of u=0, set tuw=t0w=0.0%. Table 3 displays the matrix T, an initial attempt at a resource table for t20. Note that t20,0=100% as desired. Although T is a non-parametric estimate of resources and makes no assumptions concerning the scoring patterns in t20, it is less than ideal. First, there are many table entries where there are missing data for the given situation. In addition, Table 3 does not exhibit the monotonicity expected. Logically, there is a requirement for a resource table that is non-decreasing from left to right along rows and a requirement for a resource table that is non-decreasing down columns. Also o bserve some conspicuous entries in Table 3, particularly the entry of 110.2% resources corresponding to 19 overs available and two wickets taken. This entry is clearly misleading and should be less than 100%. It arises due to the small sample size (three matches) corresponding to the given situation. For this non-parametric resource table (upcoming), the estimation procedure is robust to observations based on small sample sizes as the surrounding observations based on larger sample sizes have greater influence in the determination of the table. Therefore, there is retention of conspicuous observations such as 110.2%. This investigation of Duckworth/Lewis in Twenty20 should be viewed as one of discovery rather than an attempt to replace the Duckworth/Lewis table. Table 3. The matrix R=(r ow) of estimated resources for Twenty20 Overs available Wickets lost 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 20 100.0 19 93.6 83.0 110.2 18 90.4 85.8 78.3 17 86.7 80.5 82.8 53.7 16 81.7 74.5 81.9 70.7 32.8 15 76.5 71.4 71.5 65.9 59.9 14 68.3 69.1 67.6 66.2 58.4 13 63.8 68.2 62.4 62.9 59.0 24.3 12 62.1 62.3 60.6 57.3 58.8 44.1 11 60.5 56.3 57.0 53.6 61.0 39.7 10 57.6 49.6 52.1 52.8 48.1 38.6 41.0 35.2 9 54.9 52.1 43.6 49.0 44.1 33.8 35.0 29.7 8 51.0 46.4 41.7 42.2 41.2 36.7 27.5 28.7 7 48.6 45.8 38.9 35.9 39.1 34.8 24.1 25.5 6 54.0 37.9 36.6 30.3 36.2 31.3 20.9 21.4 26.7 5 44.0 32.5 25.4 28.7 29.4 23.9 17.1 14.9 4 28.2 23.4 22.5 22.2 20.9 14.3 10.6 3 20.6 19.9 16.9 17.8 15.8 12.4 7.6 2 21.2 17.6 11.9 13.4 10.6 11.0 7.2 1 8.7 5.2 7.3 6.0 5.5 6.0   The table entries indicate the percentage of resources remaining in a match with the specified number of wickets lost and overs available. Note: Missing entries correspond to match situations where data are unavailable. To impose the monotonicity constraints in the rows and columns, refer to the general problem of isotonic regression. For these purposes, consider the minimisation of with respect to the matrix Y=(yuw) where the double summation corresponds to u=1, †¦, 20 and w=0, †¦, 9, the quw are weights and the minimisation is subject to the constraints yuwgreater than or equal toyu,w+1 and yu,wgreater than or equal toyu−1,w. In addition, impose y20,0=100, y0,w=0 for w=0, †¦, 9 and yu,10=0 for u=1, †¦, 20. Although the fitting of Y is completely non-parametric, there are some arbitrary choices that have been made in the minimisation of (2). First, not only was the choice of squared error discrepancy in (2) convenient for computation, minimisation of the function F with squared error discrepancy corresponds to the method of constrained maximum likelihood estimation where the data ruw are independently normally distributed with means yuw and variances 1/quw. Second, a matrix Y: 20 10 based on overs is chosen. Alternatively, a larger matrix Y: 120 10 based on balls could have been considered. The overs formulation is preferred as it involves less missing data and leads to a less computationally intensive optimization. With a matrix Y based on overs, it is possible to interpolate on a ball-by-ball basis if required. Third, a simple choice has been made with respect to the weights quw. 1/quw is set equal to the sample variance used in the calculation of ruw divided by the sample size. The rationale is that when ruw is less variable, there is stronger belief that yuw should be close to ruw. Table 4 gives a non-parametric resource table based on the minimisation of (2). An algorithm for isotonic regression in two variables was first introduced by Dykstra and Robertson (1982). Fortran code was subsequently developed by Bril et al (1984). An R code implementation has been used that is available from the Iso package on the Cran website (www.cran.r-project.org). The programme requires 27 iterations to achieve convergence. What is unsatisfactory about Table 4 is that it suffers from the same criticism that was directed at the Duckworth-Lewis resource table. There is a considerable number of adjacent entries in Table 4 that have the same value. Again, it is not sensible for resources to remain constant as available overs decrease or wickets increase. The problem is that in the minimization of (2), various fitted ys occur on the boundaries imposed by the monotonicity constraints. Table 4 is also unsatisfactory from the point of view that it is incomplete; missing values corresp ond to match situations where data are unavailable. To address the above criticisms, it is necessary take a slightly different approach to estimation. As previously mentioned, it can been seen that (2) arises from the normal likelihood Therefore, consider a Bayesian model where the unknown parameters in (3) are the ys. A flat default prior is assigned to the ys subject to the monotonicity constraints. It follows that the posterior density takes the form (3) and that Gibbs sampling can be carried out via sampling from the full conditional distributions subject to the local constraints on yuw in the given iteration of the algorithm. Sampling from (4) is easily carried out using a normal generator and rejection sampling according to the constraints. Although in statistical terminology, (3) takes a parametric form, the approach is referred to as non-parametric since no functional relationship is imposed on the ys. Table 4. A non-parametric resource table for Twenty20 based on isotonic regression Overs available Wicket lost 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 20 100.0 19 93.6 85.5 85.5 18 90.4 85.5 80.8 17 86.7 80.8 80.8 64.7 16 81.7 77.4 77.4 64.7 55.9 15 76.5 71.5 71.5 64.7 55.9 14 68.8 68.8 67.6 64.7 55.9 13 66.6 66.6 62.6 62.6 55.9 38.4 12 62.2 62.2 60.6 57.3 55.9 38.4 11 60.5 56.8 56.8 54.8 54.8 38.4 10 57.6 52.1 52.1 52.1 48.1 38.4 34.1 29.3 9 54.9 52.1 46.5 46.5 44.1 36.3 34.1 29.3 8 51.0 46.4 42.0 42.0 41.2 36.3 28.6 28.6 7 48.6 45.8 38.9 37.3 37.3 34.8 25.3 25.3 6 39.7 39.7 36.6 32.8 32.8 31.3 23.0 21.4 21.4 5 39.7 32.5 28.0 28.0 28.0 23.0 17.1 15.5 4 27.9 23.4 22.5 22.2 20.9 14.3 10.7 3 20.7 19.9 17.4 17.4 15.8 12.4 7.7 2 20.7 17.6 12.5 12.5 10.8 10.8 7.2 1 8.7 6.6 6.6 6.0 5.7 5.7 The table entries indicate the percentage of resources remaining in a match with the specified number of wickets lost and overs available. Missing entries correspond to match situations where data are unavailable. In Table 5, the estimated posterior means of the ys obtained through Gibbs sampling are given, and these provide an alternative resource table for t20. The computations pose no difficulties and the estimates stabilize after 50,000 iterations. For cases of missing data, the Duckworth/Lewis table entries are used to impute the missing rs. The imputation is in the spirit of a Bayesian approach where prior information is utilised. Unlike Table 4, Table 5 is a complete table. Also, there are no longer adjacent table entries with identical values and this is due to the sampling approach. Finally, it can be stated that the methodology allows the input of expert opinion. For example, suppose that there is expert consensus that a table entry yij ought to be tied down to a particular value a. To force this table entry, all that is required is to set rij=a and assign a sufficiently small standard deviation Unfortunately we are unable to provide accessible alternative text for this. If you requi re assistance to access this image, please contact [emailprotected] or the author Table 5. A non-parametric resource table for Twenty20 based on Gibbs sampling Overs available Wickets lost 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 20 100.0 96.9 93.0 87.9 81.3 72.2 59.9 44.8 29.7 19 95.6 90.9 87.7 83.0 76.9 68.3 56.5 42.0 27.2 18 91.7